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The Best Five Sectors, #27

Stock 4 Mins Read

After a relatively quiet week for the S&P 500, we’re seeing some interesting shifts in sector dynamics. Let’s dive into the latest rankings, RRG analysis, and what it means for our portfolio strategy.

Sector Shifts and RRG Insights: Materials on the Move

The big news this week is the ascent of the Materials sector, which has muscled its way into the top five at the expense of the Utilities sector.

The rest of the top five remained steady, but we’re seeing some movement in the lower ranks as well. Consumer Discretionary made a notable jump from #9 to #7, pushing Consumer Staples and Real Estate down a notch each. Energy and Health Care continue to bring up the rear at #10 and #11, respectively.

  1. (1) Technology – (XLK)
  2. (2) Industrials – (XLI)
  3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
  4. (4) Financials – (XLF)
  5. (6) Materials – (XLB)*
  6. (5) Utilities – (XLU)*
  7. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  8. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  9. (8) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
  10. (10) Energy – (XLE)
  11. (11) Healthcare – (XLV)

Weekly RRG

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) gives us a broader perspective on sector trends. Technology continues to dominate, firmly entrenched in the leading quadrant, no surprises there. Industrials is showing stability with a short tail in the leading quadrant, indicating a consistent relative uptrend.

Communication Services, however, is raising some eyebrows. It’s lurking in the weakening quadrant with a short tail, suggesting a stable relative uptrend but with negative momentum. Financials are teetering on the edge of the lagging quadrant, a move that demands attention. Materials, despite its rise in the rankings, is actually in the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG. You will see why it made its way into the top 5 on the daily RRG.

Daily RRG

On the daily RRG, we get a more nuanced picture of short-term sector movements:

  • Materials (XLB) is the star of the show, crossing into the leading quadrant and standing alone in that coveted space.
  • Financials (XLF) is showing weakness, rolling over and heading back towards the lagging quadrant — confirming what we saw on the weekly chart.
  • Communication Services is on the verge of crossing into the lagging quadrant, a sign that is not great for its current #3 ranking.
  • Industrials is flexing its muscles, approaching the leading quadrant with a positive heading.
  • Technology, while rotating into the weakening quadrant, still has ample room to bounce back into leading territory.

Technology

The tech train continues to roll, breaking through resistance around 240 and maintaining its upward trajectory in both price and relative strength. The RS line is pushing higher after a clean breakout from its falling trend, a bullish sign for the sector leader.

Industrials

XLI is following through nicely on both price and relative strength charts. The raw RS line has established a new higher low, dragging the RS ratio higher. In my opinion, this sector looks rock-solid.

Communication Services

Here’s where things get dicey. XLC is clinging to its breakout above 105, but last week’s decline is testing that former resistance as new support. The raw RS line breaking below rising support is a warning sign that this sector could be in for a bumpy ride.

Financials

Similar to Communications Services, Financials has retreated to test old resistance as support. The raw RS line looks even worse here, having broken out of its rising channel weeks ago. Both RRG lines are flirting with the 100 level; a further push into the lagging quadrant seems likely.

Materials

XLB is showing some muscle, breaking out of its falling channel and taking out recent highs. The raw RS line is pushing against falling resistance — if it can break through, we could see a significant turnaround in the RRG lines, confirming the sector’s newfound strength.

Portfolio Performance

Now, for the part that might sting a bit, the portfolio drawdown is ongoing. It’s something trend followers need to learn to live with. Currently, the portfolio is down about 2% for the year, while the S&P 500 is up over 6%. That puts us roughly 8% behind the benchmark YTD.

It’s not a comfortable position, but it’s part of the game. Trend-following strategies often lag in choppy or rapidly changing markets. The key is to stay disciplined and trust in the long-term efficacy of our approach.

#StayAlert and have a great week, Julius

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Bitcoin Just Smashed $112K—Is a Surge to 124K Next?

Stock 5 Mins Read

Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is riding a wave of surging optimism, smashing past $112k as retail and institutional capital pour into the cryptocurrency. Some say the market has grown euphoric, and that a sharp pullback may be lurking around the corner. Others believe this is just the beginning of another leg higher.

A few key questions to guide your analysis: What does $BTCUSD’s history tell us about breakouts above major resistance after a prolonged period of sideways movement? If it’s the start of another move higher, how can you project an upside target? And, if it reverses, where could support levels come into play?

What $BTCUSD’s History Reveals About Breakouts and Big Rallies

Let’s begin by taking a look at a 3-year weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Note the crypto’s impressive rallies after clearing resistance following a prolonged period of sideways trading.

In 2023, $BTCUSD traded sideways for six months, repeatedly failing to break above resistance around $31k. But once it did, the crypto soared more than 126% before a major pullback.

A similar pattern unfolded in 2024: seven months in a wide range, unable to clear resistance between $71k and $73k. When $BTCUSD finally broke out in November, it staged a parabolic move, rallying nearly 47% before pulling back again, setting another key resistance zone that brings it to overhead resistance range between $110k–$112k.

So this answers the question posed about $BTCUSD’s historical tendencies after breaking above a prolonged range. Historically, the crypto tends to stage an outsized run once it clears critical resistance. But will it happen this time around? If so, how can you estimate a potential upside target? And if the breakout fails, where might $BTCUSD find support?

Seasonality Trends: $BTCUSD’s Strongest Months

Before looking at a daily chart, let’s look at $BTCUSD’s seasonality chart going back 10 years. If you’re curious as to how the crypto has performed during the summer months, maybe this can help.

FIGURE 2. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Most months on average have been quite strong for the asset, but October’s performance has been strong, with an average seasonal return of 21%.

According to its seasonality performance, July is arguably strong with a favorable positive close rate (70%) and return (9.6%). However, October is the crypto’s strongest month, with an 89% positive close rate and an average return of 21%. Over the last 10 years, $BTCUSD’s performance has been volatile, which accounts for the outsize returns on this chart. While seasonal tendencies don’t guarantee a repeat, knowing the general bullish/bearish seasonality context can help inform your analysis and trading decisions.

Now, let’s look at a daily chart to find entry points or estimate an upside target while identifying support, should its breakout fail to follow through.

$BTCUSD Breaks Critical $112K Resistance

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF $BTCUSD. The asset just broke above critical resistance. If you have a position, now’s the time to estimate potential price targets.

$BTCUSD just broke the critical resistance level of $112k. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating strong momentum, easing into an overbought reading. While there’s no way to fundamentally determine the crypto’s upside target, one technical method is to use a measured move by taking the height of the prior range and adding it to the top of the range (or the breakout level; this varies by trader).

Calculating an Upside Target Using a Measured Move Approach

Measuring the range from the support area around $98k up to $110–112k (we’ll settle for $110k), you can project that distance of $12k above the top level of the breakout range, which implies a potential target near $124k, more or less.

$110k breakout + $12k range height = $122k–$124k target, depending on entry.

However, note that some traders don’t wait for a 100% measured move before taking profits. Some will exit positions as soon as a 60% move has occurred, but that really depends on the trader.

Key Support Levels to Watch if the Breakout Fails

Now, if $BTCUSD fails to follow through and reverses, you can reasonably expect support at roughly these three levels:

  • The breakout level near $112k.
  • A strong historical support level at around $110k.
  • Another support level within the previous trading range (shaded red) near $100k, which coincides with concentrated levels of trading activity, according to the Volume-by-Price (the horizontal volume bars on the left side of the chart).

If $BTCUSD falls below the previous trading range, that is, below $98k, then the current rally is likely over.

What to Do Now

Ideally, a trader’s entry point would have been at $112k. Considering that some platforms allow fractional lots of $BTCUSD, some people may choose to enter smaller positions, as a fractional position would minimize risk and reward.

If you already have a position in $BTCUSD, put it in your ChartLists, and set a price alert at $124k or any measured move percentage below that 100% target level (like 60% of the measured move would be at $119k).

If the breakout fails, expect a near-term bounce between $110k and $112k. However, a move lower toward $100k or $98k would likely signal an end to the bullish thesis. Traders might even consider placing a stop a few points below $98k to avoid the likelihood of further downside.

At the Close

$BTCUSD has a history of explosive moves after clearing major resistance, but it can just as easily blindside you with a sudden reversal. That’s why it’s crucial to keep upside and downside levels in mind. Seasonality also favors the bulls, with most months delivering favorable returns. Add the crypto to your ChartLists and set price alerts to track whether your upside target is hit, or whether downside levels signal either an early bounce or a failed rally.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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From Hammer to Harami: Using StockCharts to Crack the Candlestick Code

Stock 1 Min Read

Join Dave as he reviews three common candle patterns traders can use to identify potential turning points. From bullish engulfing patterns to evening star patterns, Dave gives insights on how to leverage these powerful candle signals to anticipate market shifts. He also shows combining candle patterns with conventional technical analysis tools can help improve success rates.

This video originally premiered on July 14, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

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Investing

Silver Price at New Base, What Comes Next? First Majestic’s Mani Alkhafaji

Investing 1 Min Read

Mani Alkhafaji, vice president of corporate of development and investor relations at First Majestic Silver (TSX:AG,NYSE:AG) discusses silver’s recent price rise.

He notes that the gold-silver mining ratio is at seven to one, while the price ratio is at 90 to one.

‘That tells us silver needs to play catch up to collapse that ratio,’ he said.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Investing

Ted Butler: Silver’s Moment is Here, Time for Price to Outperform

Investing 1 Min Read

Has silver’s moment finally arrived?

Precious metals analyst Ted Butler believes the answer is ‘yes.’

‘I think this is the moment, because we broke through technically what was a really important level — that US$35, US$36 (per ounce) level,’ he said. He sees a clear path for silver to outperform gold.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Adrian Day: Gold Price Drivers Stacking Up, Any Pullback a Chance to Buy

Investing 1 Min Read

Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, shares his latest thoughts on gold.

He also discusses the opportunity in gold stocks, saying that while as a group they’re up 55 percent in last year, valuation metrics are lower than they were two years ago.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Investing

Gold Price Update: Q2 2025 in Review

Investing 9 Mins Read

After soaring to all-time highs during the first quarter of 2025, how could gold follow up during Q2?

By setting new price records, of course.

Tariff threats, financial uncertainty and geopolitical tensions all fueled the yellow metal’s price rise during the second quarter of the year, which saw gold reach the US$3,500 per ounce mark for the first time.

While central banks continued to make gold purchases during the period, so too did retail investors, who shied away from US treasuries in favor of a more tangible safe-haven asset class.

What happened to the gold price in Q2?

Gold had an impressive run during the first quarter of the year, steadily rising from US$2,658.04 on January 2 to US$3,138.24 on April 2, leaving investors to wonder how much more gas was available for Q2.

Gold price, April 1 to July 10, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

The price of gold started the second quarter on a downswing, falling below the US$3,000 mark by April 8, but quickly found momentum and soared to its quarterly high of US$3,434.40 on April 21.

It broke through the US$3,500 threshold briefly during the day’s trading session.

However, the gains were temporary, and gold once again fell; by May 1, it had dropped to US$3,237.30.

The metal saw a slight rebound to US$3,400.70 before the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve, but it came under pressure after that and had fallen to US$3,185 by May 14.

The end of May saw more tailwinds for the gold price, pushing it first to US$3,358 by May 23, then to US$3,381.70 by June 2. By the middle of the month, it was back to trading above US$3,400. Since that time, the precious metal has remained mainly above the US$3,300 level, closing the quarter at US$3,303.30 on June 30.

Tariff uncertainty helps boost gold price

The biggest story from the first quarter has carried over into the second quarter: tariffs.

Since the start of his second term in the Oval Office, US President Donald Trump has applied the threat of tariffs like a cudgel in trade talks with other countries. His long-held belief is that other nations, even longtime allies, are benefiting from trade with the US, while the US itself is facing detrimental effects.

During the first quarter of the year, the Trump administration levied tariff threats against Canada and Mexico. While most of his promised import fees were dialed back at the eleventh hour, a 25 percent tax was still applied to imports of Canadian steel and aluminum, as well as non-CUSMA-compliant automobiles and parts.

On April 2, Trump announced a broader set of tariffs on nearly every country in the world, regardless of trade status with the US. Dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump, the executive order applied a baseline 10 percent fee to all imports from most countries to the US, plus significant reciprocal measures against countries with the largest trade deficits.

The new measures, set to be implemented on April 9, created panic among investors, causing a global market meltdown. Fear also spread to US debt holders, such as Japan and Canada, which began to sell US treasuries, pushing up the 10 year bond yield. Spooked investors rapidly flocked to gold, pushing the price to record highs above US$3,400.

“The bond market understands that Washington is so broken and the debt situation is so bad,’ he explained. ‘It varies in degrees compared to other countries, but everybody’s in the same boat. That’s why gold all of a sudden … gold is the safe haven now, even more than treasuries. And I don’t think a lot of people every thought they’d see that again.’

Ultimately, the stock market turmoil and the shift in bond market sentiment brought about a quick reversal from Trump, who paused his tariff plans for 90 days. Although the gold price showed signs of easing as market participants calmed, the metal remained high through the end of the quarter as uncertainty remained near the surface.

The pause was set to expire on July 9, but the White House announced a last-minute extension delaying the implementation of the tariffs on all but 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea and South Africa.

However, there are still underlying concerns.

The US-China trade war, which raged through much of the first half of the year, was put on hold on May 12 after tariffs between the two largest economies reached their peak, adding headwinds to the gold price. Up to that point, the US had levied a 145 percent import tax on Chinese goods while China had applied a 125 percent tax on US imports.

Although tensions have stabilized since the pause, on July 7, China warned the US against reigniting conflicts. China also said it would retaliate against any country that makes deals with the US to China’s detriment.

Geopolitical tensions erupt in the Middle East

Financial uncertainty was a key driver of the gold price through the second quarter as investors sought to diversify their portfolios amid a chaotic investment landscape, but it wasn’t the only factor.

Geopolitical tensions also played a significant role, particularly in the Middle East.

With the Israel-Gaza conflict now past 18 months, the larger fear was that it would spill into a broader regional war.

Those fears were stoked in late May, when there was speculation that Israel was preparing to attack nuclear facilities in Iran. The news helped pull gold out of monthly lows as more investors sought the safety of the metal.

Ultimately, the speculation was true — on June 12, Israel launched attacks against key nuclear sites in Iran, causing Iran to launch counterattacks against targets in Israel and providing further tailwinds for the gold price.

What’s driving demand for gold?

Other support for the gold price came from continued purchases from central banks.

According to World Gold Council data, central banks bought 244 metric tons of gold in Q1. The amount was 24 percent higher than the five year quarterly average, but 9 percent lower than the average from the last three years.

The largest first quarter gold buyers were the National Bank of Poland, which added 49 metric tons of the metal to its holdings, increasing its total to 497 metric tons. This was followed by the People’s Bank of China, which purchased 13 metric tons, bringing its reported gold reserves to 2,292 metric tons

In another report, the World Gold Council indicates that despite high prices, central banks continued to buy gold in May, albeit at a slightly reduced pace, with a net 20 metric tons entering their reserves.

But it’s not just central banks that are picking up gold.

“In the past, there has been relatively little involvement, even to now, from western retail investors in this move. This has been overwhelmingly led by central banks and large funds,” Temple said.

However, he noted a shift in buying on the back of wider interest, pointing to gold’s popularity at Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST), although he noted, ‘So far, this hasn’t moved the needle significantly.’

Temple added, “Traditionally the big needle mover when you’ve got these larger swings in markets and market sentiment has come from investors who are buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and buying the larger gold stocks, and then ultimately working their way down the food chain and buying the better exploration stories. We finally started in recent months to see some of that where it’s deserved. There have been some really nice moves.’

This idea is echoed in the World Gold Council’s June ETF report, which indicates that ETF flows ended the first half of 2025 with the highest semiannual inflows since the first half of 2020.

The North American movement led the way, with more than US$4.8 billion entering the market in June, bringing the total for the first half of the year to US$21 billion. This was followed by US$2 billion in inflows in Europe, with its first half total reaching US$6 billion. Asian markets added US$610 million with a first-half record of US$11 billion.

Gold price forecast for 2025

The expectation is that the factors that drove the gold price in H1 are unlikely to go away soon.

Trump continues to kick the tariff question down the road. And although a ceasefire has been called between Israel and Iran, tensions in the region are still high. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, with Russia escalating attacks at the start of July, to the point of invoking Trump’s ire.

“We were thinking that by the time you got into June, July, August, not only would you have some seasonal weakness, but you’d also have a situation where financial markets might have calmed down and taken a less pessimistic outlook to the economy, simply because the initial shock of Trump policies was in there and had been digested. What we’re seeing is a prolongation of that shock period.’

Financial uncertainty and conflicts were a theme echoed by Kandoshko.

She pointed to the July 9 — now August 1 — deadline for tariffs as a potential inflection point.

“This could spark another rally in gold prices if trade tensions escalate. I have a feeling that the existing tariffs will gradually push prices up, which might lead the Fed to hold off on cutting rates. In the grand scheme of things, higher inflation is likely to boost gold demand, especially from central banks,” Kandoshko said.

She also believes a weak US dollar will likely be a boon for gold, making it more attractive to overseas buyers.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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AI Market Update: Q2 2025 in Review

Investing 7 Mins Read

Q2 confirmed that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is entering a new phase in the physical world.

As the industry evolves, attention is being directed to strengthening underlying infrastructure while advancing areas like embodied AI, a subsector that MarketsandMarkets projects will grow at a CAGR of 39 percent globally by 2030.

Also during Q2, a geopolitical tech rivalry exacerbated shifting macroeconomic conditions.

While the race for compute, energy, hardware and supply chain dominance intensified, talk of tariff policies reigniting inflation or contributing to stagflation created brief periods of contraction.

Concerns also grew around AI-driven job displacement, amplified by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s ominous warning that AI could eliminate up to half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within the next five years.

On a more positive note, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) both ended Q2 up by 0.5 percent, closing the first half of 2025 at all-time highs with gains of 5.5 percent.

That said, investor enthusiasm for AI is showing early signs of recalibration.

Big Tech delivered generally robust Q2 earnings despite initial volatility in April, but posted only modest year-to-date gains, suggesting near-term caution around richly valued growth names. Meanwhile, quantum computing, which NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said was decades away just six months ago, made measurable progress in Q2, drawing attention from both deep-tech investors and national governments.

McKinsey’s annual Quantum Technology Monitor projects that quantum computing, communication and sensing could generate up to US$97 billion in global revenue by 2035, with quantum computing leading the way.

Not surprisingly, AI companies performed well. Thirty-eight AI stocks chosen by Morningstar — including Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), Synopsys (NASDAQ:SNPS) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) — closed 27.3 percent higher, outpacing the Morningstar US Technology Index, which gained 22 percent.

Ultimately, the quarter underscored a strategic pivot for major tech players, prioritizing vast infrastructure investments alongside aggressive AI monetization efforts to capitalize on this transformative era.

AI results impact major tech players

In public markets, AI-related equities continued to attract attention.

NVIDIA posted another blockbuster quarter, with its market cap on the cusp of $US4 trillion at the end of June. Its performance was driven largely by demand for Blackwell architecture.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), facing a possible Chrome divestiture, reported an increase in AI-related ad revenue and highlighted growing adoption of its Gemini model suite. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) reported a 23 percent annual increase in net sales from its Amazon Web Services segment, beating earnings estimates by 17.78 percent.

Meta Platforms’ (NASDAQ:META) Reality Labs division reported a $US4.2 billion operating loss; however, interest in embodied AI applications for the metaverse and augmented reality continue to be the company’s long-term play, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg poaching the industry’s top talent to assemble the Meta Superintelligence Lab. On July 7, Reuters reported that the company had added Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Ruoming Pang as its latest recruit.

Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) OpenAI partnership faced issues after OpenAI bought Windsurf, an AI coding firm. Disputes arose over Microsoft’s access to WindSurf’s IP and its stake in a restructured OpenAI.

Q2 was also marked by a shift to AI in hardware, robotics and edge applications.

Chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Google introduced specialized AI accelerators, a potential challenge to NVIDIA’s nearly three year run as the dominant provider.

Notable developments in robotics included Google Cloud and Samsung Electronics’ (KRX:005930) partnership, integrating Google Cloud’s advanced generative AI technology into Samsung’s new home AI companion robot, Ballie.

Data center operators like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud also increased their infrastructure investments in the US as part of an effort to reduce reliance on foreign markets and secure long-term AI compute capacity.

Companies began testing or rolling out new AI agent capabilities, empowered by the Model Context Protocol from Anthropic. Major tech players, along with payment giants Visa (NYSE:V), Mastercard (NYSE:MA), Stripe, Block (NYSE:SQ) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), began adopting the Model Context Protocol to integrate seamless payment functionality directly into AI chatbots, moving beyond simple browse to full commerce.

Microsoft enhanced its GitHub Copilot offering with new coding agents capable of autonomous actions, while a handful of companies, including Dataiku, Databricks and Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM), introduced tools designed to build, deploy and manage autonomous systems for real-world enterprise applications.

On the quantum computing side, a paper published by researcher Craig Gidney for Google’s Quantum AI division suggests that a quantum computer could break a highly secure 2048 bit encryption, like the kind used for online banking, much faster than previously thought, requiring fewer than a million qubits.

Quantum computing firms later saw their shares spike following bullish comments from NVIDIA’s Huang at his company’s Paris GTC conference. Before Huang’s comments, IBM (NYSE:IBM) announced its development of the world’s first large-scale, error-free quantum computer, set to launch by 2029.

AI trends to watch in Q3

Q2 confirmed the AI cycle is evolving beyond text-based chatbots to hardware, embodiment and commercial uses.

While the Magnificent Seven still largely drove returns in Q2, there’s an expectation that earnings growth will broaden out to other sectors. Picton Investments’ 2025 mid-year update suggests that foundational model growth is encountering headwinds, with competition challenging the need for extensive capital expenditure.

Graph indicating that investor enthusiasm for AI stocks has recently ‘lost altitude.’

Graph via Picton Investments.

However, the firm also suggests that this shift is redirecting the spotlight to real-world AI applications, leading to an expected acceleration of industrial adoption and the creation of new companies.

At this year’s Web Summit conference in May, panelists emphasized the critical role of strategic early stage investments when it comes to navigating the evolving AI landscape and identifying new opportunities.

“Our take is (that) AI is going to upend a lot of technology businesses. In the specific sense, I am of increasingly high conviction that authoring software is going to be more or less free, and that’s going to shake up the topology of the software business market (in terms of) what makes sense and what’s investable,” said Brett Gibson, managing partner at Initialized Capital, during a panel discussion on where AI investment is headed next.

He added that customizable software will ultimately allow for tailored solutions for virtually any need.

In H2, quantum computing could continue its shift from pure research into early stage commercialization.

Updates may come from firms like IonQ (NYSE:IONQ), which recently raised US$1 billion to expand quantum networking, as well as Quantinuum and PsiQuantum, which may reach technical milestones.

Meanwhile, D-Wave (NYSE:QBTS) is pivoting toward hybrid commercial models, which may offer continued proof of revenue from quantum optimization-as-a-service.

However, the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations between the US and the rest of the world could impact chip capacity and rare earths supply chains, constraining the growth of AI hardware stocks.

The Trump administration’s imposition of 25 percent tariffs on Japan and South Korea may pose a threat to semiconductor capacity and rare earths equipment imports critical for AI hardware.

“Both countries have been close partners on economic security matters and have a lot to offer the United States on priority matters like shipbuilding, semiconductors, critical minerals and energy cooperation,” Asia Society Policy Institute vice president Wendy Cutler said in response to the hikes.

Investor takeaway

The second quarter of the year confirmed an evolution in the AI landscape as the industry moves beyond theoretical discussions to real-world applications and critical infrastructure development.

While geopolitical tensions and concerns about job displacement may continue to present challenges, this pivot could set the stage for continued innovation and adaptation as the industry navigates both opportunities and complexities.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Business

Jerome Powell asks inspector general to review Fed’s $2.5B renovation project

Business 3 Mins Read

The Federal Reserve has brought in its inspector general to review a building expansion that has drawn fire from the White House, according to a source familiar with the issue.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell asked for the review, following blistering criticism of the project, initially pegged at $2.5 billion but hit by cost overruns that have brought accusations from President Donald Trump and other administration officials of “fundamental mismanagement.”

“The idea that the Fed could print money and then spend $2.5 billion on a building without real congressional oversight, it didn’t occur to the people that framed the Federal Reserve Act,” Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “We’ve got a real problem of oversight and excess spending.”

The inspector general serves the Fed and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and is responsible for looking for fraud, waste and abuse. Powell’s request was reported first by Axios.

In a letter posted to social media last week, Russell Vought, head of the Office of Management and Budget, also slammed the project, which involves two of the Fed’s three Washington, D.C., buildings including its main headquarters known as the Eccles Building.

Vought, during a CNBC interview Friday, likened the building to the Palace of Versailles in France and charged that Powell was guilty of “fiscal mismanagement” at the Fed.

For its part, the central bank has posted a detailed frequently asked questions page on its site, highlighting key details and explaining why some of the specifications were changed or “scaled back or eliminated” at least in part due to higher-than-expected construction costs.

“The project also remediates safety issues by removing hazardous materials such as asbestos and lead and will bring the buildings up to modern code,” the page explains. “While periodic work has been done to keep the buildings occupiable, neither building has seen a comprehensive renovation since they were constructed.”

The Fed is not a taxpayer-funded institution and is therefore not under the OMB’s supervision. It has worked with the National Capital Planning Commission in Washington on the project, but also noted on the FAQ page that it “does not regard any of those changes as warranting further review.”

In separate comments, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, speaking Sunday on Fox News, called the renovation costs “outrageous” and said it was more evidence the central bank “has lost its way.” Warsh is considered a strong contender to succeed Powell when the latter’s term as chair expires in May 2026.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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What Happens Next for the S&P 500? Pick Your Path!

Stock 4 Mins Read

The S&P continues to push higher, with the equity benchmark almost reaching 6300 this week for the first time in history. With so many potential macro headwinds still surrounding us, how can the market continue to reflect so much optimism? On the other hand, when will bulls wake up and realize that this market is obviously overextended and rotate significantly lower?

With the S&P 500 once again achieving new all-time highs, and with Q2 earnings just around the corner, I thought it would be a perfect time to revisit an exercise in probabilistic analysis. Basically, I’ll lay out four different scenarios for the S&P 500 index between now and late August. Which path do you see as the most likely and why? Watch the video, check out the first scenarios, and then cast your vote!

By the way, we last ran this analytical process on the S&P 500 back in May, and check out which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the S&P 500 index continuing the recent uptrend phase to retest all-time highs by June.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

The most bullish scenario would involve the S&P 500 continuing a similar trajectory that we’ve seen off the April low. Growth continues to dominate, tariffs remain essentially a non-issue, volatility remains lower, and the market moves onward and ever upward!

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if the uptrend continues, but at a much slower rate? The “mildly bullish scenario” would mean the S&P 500 probably tops out around 6300-6400 but doesn’t get any further. Perhaps a leadership rotation emerges, and technology stocks start to pull back as investors rotate to other sectors and themes. Lack of upside momentum from the largest growth names slows the uptrend in a big way.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

Maybe “the top” is already in, and even though July is traditionally a strong month, we see a corrective move into August that brings the S&P 500 down to the 200-day moving average. Bulls and bears would probably feel quite vindicated here, as bulls would see this as a healthy pullback, and bears would see this as a serious wake up call for investors.

Dave’s vote: 45%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

We always need a doomsday scenario, and here we’ll describe how the S&P 500 could go back down to retest the May price gap. If Q2 earnings season becomes all about companies reflecting on a significantly negative impact from potential tariffs, and investors begin to not just complain about overvalued stocks but actually start selling as a result, we could certainly see a downside move to retrace about 38.2% of the April to July uptrend phase.

Dave’s vote: 15%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment on which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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