Nickel sinks to 2020 lows

Commodity prices crashed at the start of the quarter, with nickel falling to a five-year low, reaching US$14,150 per metric ton on April 8. However, prices quickly recovered from the rout and reached US$15,880 on April 24.

The end of April saw the price once again retreat to US$15,230 as downward trend indications began to take hold. The price through May was largely rangebound, starting the month rising to US$15,850 on May 9 before collapsing again to US$15,085 on May 27.

Nickel price chart, April 01 to July 24, 2025

via TradingEconomics

June started with a short-lived rebound to US$15,510 on June 2, before falling to below the US$15,000 mark to reach US$14,840 on June 24. Since then, the price experienced some upward momentum, reaching US$15,575 on July 23.

Supply surplus causing price pressures

In a presentation at the Indonesian Mining Conference on June 30, Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics at the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) outlined the current state of the nickel market.

He suggested that high output from Indonesian miners continued to exert downward price pressures on nickel over the last several years, resulting in a decline from an average price of US$30,425 per metric ton in 2022 to an average of US$15,000 per metric ton during the first five months of 2025.

Meanwhile, combined inventories on the London Metals Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have exploded from 38,200 metric tons at the end of May 2023 to 230,600 metric tons at the end of April 2025.

This coincides with a 15.1 percent increase in global nickel production in 2023 and a 2.3 percent increase in 2024. The expectation is that nickel output will surge an additional 8.5 percent in 2025, with a significant portion to come from Indonesia, whose share is forecast to grow to 63.4 percent from 61.6 percent in the previous year.

The demand outlook

However, demand has not kept pace with the increase in production. Ferreira stated that demand increased by 7.8 percent in 2023, 4.8 percent in 2024, and is expected to grow by 5.7 percent in 2025.

Stainless steel has been the primary driver of nickel demand for decades. Still, Olivier Masson, Principal Analyst for Battery Raw Materials at Fastmarkets, predicts a changing demand landscape over the next couple of years.

During his CAM Minerals Market Forecast at the Fastmarkets LBRM Las Vegas conference on June 22 to 25, Masson provided insight into why he believes the current oversupply situation will begin to shift by 2027.

Currently, nickel’s primary demand driver is in the production of stainless steel, accounting for just over 2 million metric tons per year. However, the expectation is that between now and 2035, total demand for nickel will increase by 2 million tons, with stainless production accounting for just 564,000 metric tons. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2 percent.

“We expect to see more end-of-life scrap being generated within China, and then that should start slowing down the growth requirements for primary nickel in the Chinese stainless-steel industry,” Masson explained.

The remaining demand is predicted to come from a 12.8 percent, or 1.4 million metric ton, increase from the EV sector.

“Most of this growth will come from pure EV, so pure battery electric vehicles, where we expect sales growth of over 30 million vehicles… But we still expect an increase in plug-in hybrids with an additional 11.5 million vehicle sales over the next decade,” Masson said.

He went on to say that over that time, supply is expected to grow at a slower rate, with the majority owed to increases in nickel sulphate destined for battery manufacturing.

“So what does that mean for the balance for the nickel market? Well, the nickel market has been oversupplied for the past couple of years. We expect that to continue this year and for the next few years. So we are in a state of structural oversupply. That said, its only by around 2027 or 2028 that we think the market will start to return to a semblance of Balance,” Masson explained

In the long term, he stated that an additional 750,000 metric tons will be needed by 2035, which he doesn’t see as a significant problem.

Production curtailments continue

With the market currently experiencing a supply glut, more producers have taken to curtailing production or shuttering operations.

Since 2024, there have been closures of significant operations, including First Quantum’s (TSX:FM,OTC:FQVLF) Ravensthorpe and Panoramic Resources’ Savannah operations in Australia and Glencore’s (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF,OTC:GLCNF) Koniambo Nickel mine in New Caledonia.

Likewise, Refiners have also been under pressure as BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP,OTC:BHPLF) suspended operations at its Nickel West refinery in Australia until 2027, and Sibanye Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) repurposed its Sandouville nickel refinery in France to produce precursor cathode active material during the first half of 2025.

According to INSG data, 32 percent of global nickel production lines are currently offline.

One of the few companies to buck the trend was Vale (NYSE:VALE), which announced a 44 percent year-over-year increase in nickel production in its Q2 2025 report released on July 22. The report indicated that nickel output rose to 40,300 metric tons from 27,900 during the same quarter last year. The company said gains were driven by strong performance from its Canadian assets and the Onca Puma mine in Brazil.

While there was some speculation that Indonesia may reduce its output, no cuts have materialized, which has in part led Australian investment bank Macquarie to downgrade its nickel outlook to US$14,500 per metric ton by the end of the year, from the US$15,500 it predicted at the end of Q1.

The impact of trade uncertainty

Base metals were caught up as part of the fallout from Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2. The move applied a 10 percent across-the-board baseline tariff to all but a handful of countries and threatened to impose more significant retaliatory tariffs starting on April 9.

However, a steep US$6.6 trillion sell-off in equity markets and a squeeze in the bond market that sent yields for 10-year Treasuries up more than half a percent caused the US administration to walk back its plans. Instead, it announced a 90-day pause on the higher tariff rate and stated that it would work to negotiate new trade agreements.

The commodity price rout came as more analysts began to speculate about a recession later in 2025, which would reduce consumer spending on steel-dependent goods, such as light vehicles and new home builds.

In statements made during S&P Global’s State of the Market: Mining Q1’ 25 webinar on May 14, Naditha Manubag, Associate Research Analyst of Metals and Mining Research, suggested that nickel is likely to experience headwinds from the evolving trade policy in the United States.

“We expect nickel prices to remain volatile in the near term as the Trump administration’s trade policies continue to evolve. Forecast for 2025 global primary nickel demand is lowered to 2.8 percent year-over-year due to the expected slowdown in global economic activity,” she said.

Manubag said the slowdown would have a negative impact on demand for Chinese consumer goods, which would come alongside a rising Indonesian mining quota in 2025. Although prices spiked in March, she explained that it was due to tight supplies from the rainy season and increased royalty rates.

Manubag suggested that S&P’s overall expectation is that the nickel market will be in a surplus of 198,000 metric tons in 2025. As a result, the organization has lowered its nickel price forecast to US$15,730 per metric ton.

It’s more than just US tariffs that are expected to weigh on nickel prices in the short term. When Donald Trump signed the “One Big Beautiful” spending bill into law on July 4, it marked an end to the federal EV tax credit and other tax credits aimed at expanding charging infrastructure, a cornerstone of the Inflation Reduction Act.

The consumer credit was meant to provide a US$7,500 rebate toward the purchase of new EVs, and is expected to have an impact on overall demand when it expires on September 30.

Although the majority of nickel’s demand comes from the production of stainless steel, the growing demand from EV battery production has provided additional tailwinds; however, a decline in EV demand could impact future demand growth.

“If and when this bill is passed, a slowdown of EV uptake is expected to lead to higher EV prices and slower rollout of charging infrastructure,” Manubag said.

The big picture for investors

Currently, the easiest way to sum up the nickel market is that it’s widely disliked. The fundamentals aren’t there. A significant portion of nickel is being produced at a loss.

“You know, nickel is hated right now. I think there’s a decent case for nickel, just like when we went into platinum, right? Platinum did nothing for a decade; it just hung around US$900 to US$1,000, and now we’ve finally broken out… You have no idea when, but buy it when it’s boring. At US$900, no one cares, and then you get to ride the wave up. So I think that would be it. Pay attention to what’s unloved and hated and buy that,” he said.

Others in the investment community have expressed a similar sentiment. Although fundamentals for nickel are currently lacklustre, demand, especially from the automotive sector, is expected to grow over the next 10 years.

1. Camino Minerals (TSXV:COR)

Year-to-date gain: 655.56 percent
Market cap: C$13.5 million
Share price: C$0.34

Camino Minerals is a copper exploration and development company with a portfolio of projects in South America.

Among its primary focuses since the start of the year is the construction-ready Puquois copper project in Chile, a 50/50 joint venture with Nittetsu Mining (TSE:1515). The partners jointly acquired Cuprum Resources, the project’s owner, through a October 2024 definitive agreement that was completed on April 17, and are now focused on project financing.

Prior to the closing of the acquisition, the partners completed a prefeasibility study for the project in Chile on March 17.

The study results demonstrate a post-tax net present value of US$118 million, with an internal rate of return of 23.4 percent and a payback period of 3.1 years at a fixed copper price of US$4.28. It also outlines all-in sustaining costs of US$2.00 per pound for the 14.2 year mine life.

In addition to the economic details, the included mineral resource estimate shows a measured and indicated resource of 149,000 metric tons of copper from 32.16 million metric tons of ore grading 0.46 percent copper.

Camino also owns the Los Chapitos project, located near the coastal town of Chala, Peru, which covers approximately 22,000 hectares and hosts near-surface mineralization. Nittetsu Mining has an earn-in agreement for the project through which it can earn a 35 percent interest in the project for a total investment of C$10 million over three years.

Camino announced on January 22 that it had initiated a discovery exploration program at Los Chapitos, with work funded by Nittetsu. The company said the program would consist of 11 holes and 1,200 meters of drilling along the La Estancia fault, focusing on newly identified copper breccias and mantos to determine their extension at depth.

Camino released results from the program on May 6, reporting continuity of mineralization at depth at the Pampero prospect, with a 0.5 meter interval found 157.6 meters downhole grading an average of 0.5 percent copper and 3.15 grams per metric ton (g/t) silver. The company also reported that rock chip samples at the prospect graded up to 3.8 percent copper and 4 g/t silver.

The company has continued its exploration efforts at Los Chapitos, with another fully funded campaign running from June 1 to November 30. On July 16, it reported trench results from the newly identified Mirador zone, including 1.07 percent copper over 90 meters, with a 4 meter section grading 3.05 percent copper.

Shares of Camino reached a year-to-date high of C$0.34 on July 16.

2. Finlay Minerals (TSXV:FYL)

Year-to-date gain: 425 percent
Market cap: C$15.84 million
Share price: C$0.105

Finlay Minerals is an exploration company with a portfolio of five projects in British Columbia, Canada.

In 2025, the company has largely focused on its ATTY and PIL projects, which cover 3,875 hectares and 13,374 hectares respectively in BC’s Toodoggone mining district. The region is known for copper-molybdenum-gold porphyry deposits and gold-silver epithermal deposits.

Finlay’s shares rose sharply early in the year after Amarc Resources announced the significant AuRORA discovery at its JOY property, located just south of the PIL project in the same porphyry corridor as PIL and ATTY. On January 20, shortly after the discovery, Finlay announced it would be renewing its focus on its PIL project’s PIL South target, which lies approximately 750 meters from AuRORA.

One month later, Finlay reported it had outlined numerous copper targets at both the PIL and ATTY properties after reviewing geological data, and was planning its 2025 exploration program at PIL to delineate drill targets.

Shares surged in Q2 after Finlay announced on April 17 that it had entered into an earn-in agreement with Freeport McMoRan for PIL and ATTY. Under the terms of the agreement, Freeport can earn an 80 percent stake in the properties through a total of C$35 million in exploration expenditures and C$4.1 million in cash payments over the next six years.

In an update on June 18, Finlay reported that it had begun its exploration programs at both properties, fully funded by Freeport. At both properties, exploration will include property-wide airborne magnetic surveys, and induced polarization geophysical surveys. It will also include detailed geological and alteration mapping, along with rock and soil sampling, on up to eight targets at PIL and three targets at ATTY.

The most recent news came on July 17, when Finlay announced it had increased the exploration program budget for PIL to C$2.6 million from C$750,000 and the budget for ATTY to C$1 million from C$500,000. The company stated that the additional funding will be utilized to identify and prioritize as many targets as possible for drilling in 2026.

3. King Copper Discovery (TSXV:KCP)

Year-to-date gain: 420 percent
Market cap: C$52.92 million
Share price: C$0.26

King Copper Discovery is a copper, silver and gold explorer that is developing a portfolio of projects in South America. The company changed its name from Turmalina Metals in March.

Its primary focus is the Colquemayo project in Moquegua, Peru. In July 2024, King Copper entered into an option agreement with Compania de Minas Buenaventura (NYSE:BVM) to wholly acquire the property.

The company has been relogging the historic drill core from the site. The 6,600 hectare site has seen more than 20,000 meters of historic core drilling and hosts multiple porphyry targets that have been identified but had gone untested. Highlighted drill samples show results of 2.4 percent copper and 10 grams per metric ton (g/t) silver over 237.3 meters, including 14.8 percent copper and 47 g/t silver over 31.3 meters.

In a broad corporate update on February 12, the company said it was intensifying its focus on the project and rebranding from Turmalina to reflect that. Additionally, it hired Insideo, a Lima-based environmental consulting firm, to help advance baseline studies and the drill permit process. Additionally, CEO Roger James stepped down, maintaining a seat on the board, and was replaced by Jonathan Richards as interim CEO.

On March 11, the company began trading under its new name and ticker.

The company has not provided any updates from its projects in the second quarter of the year, but shares have traded higher alongside a rising copper price. On July 15, it released an updated corporate presentation with plans for a 15,000 meter drill program in Q4 testing porphyry systems at the site with holes over 1,000 meters deep.

Shares of King Copper reached a year-to-date high of C$0.26 on July 16.

4. Amarc Resources (TSXV:AHR)

Year-to-date gain: 251.22 percent
Market cap: C$166 million
Share price: C$0.72

Amarc Resources is a copper exploration company primarily focused on advancing its JOY district in Northern British Columbia.

The 495 square kilometer property lies within the Toodoggone region and hosts the AuRORA prospect.

Shares in Amarc surged early in the year after it announced the discovery of AuRORA on January 17. In the release, it outlined the high-grade potential of the deposit, highlighting an assay of 0.63 percent copper over 162 meters, including an 81 meter intersection grading 0.92 percent copper, from near surface depths.

The exploration program was funded as part of a May 2021 earn-in agreement with Freeport McMoran that could see Freeport earn a 70 percent stake in the project once funding milestones are met.

Amarc provided more drill assays from its 2024 program on February 28. One assay graded 0.63 percent copper over 132 meters, including 0.81 percent over a 90 meter segment.

On February 11, Amarc agreed to acquire the Brenda property, which lies directly to the east of the AuRORA discovery, from Canasil Resources. Under the terms of the deal, Amarc has the option to acquire a 100 percent interest in Brenda over five years. Canasil will retain a 2 percent net smelter return.

The most recent news from JOY came on July 16, when the company announced it commenced drilling at targets including the AuRORA and PINE deposits and the Twins and Canyon discoveries. The announcement also reported the expansion of the JOY district through Freeport’s options on Finlay’s PIL property.

In addition to exploration at JOY, Amarc also released assay results from its 2024 exploration at its IKE copper-gold project in Southern British Columbia on May 14. The company reported copper grades of 0.29 percent copper over 181 meters, including an intersection with 0.56 percent copper over 60 meters.

Shares in Armac reached a year-to-date high of C$0.77 on July 4.

5. C3 Metals (TSXV:CCCM)

Year-to-date gain: 233.33 percent
Market cap: C$74.91 million
Share price: C$0.80

C3 Metals is an exploration company working to advance its assets in Jamaica and Peru.

C3’s primary Jamaican asset is the Bellas Gate project, a 13,020 hectare site featuring 14 porphyry and over 30 epithermal prospects along an 18 kilometer strike. To date, drilling at the site has concentrated on a 4 kilometer zone encompassing the Provost, Geo Hill, Camel Hill and Connors prospects.

Shares of C3 experienced significant gains after it announced on February 11 that it had signed an earn-in agreement with a Freeport-McMoRan subsidiary, which can gain up to a 75 percent interest in the project. Under the agreement, Freeport must contribute US$25 million in exploration and project expenditures over five years to earn the initial 51 percent interest, and an additional US$50 million over the following four years for the remaining 24 percent.

In Peru, C3 has focused on advancing its Jasperoide copper-gold project. The site in Southern Peru spans 30,000 hectares and hosts two porphyry and more than 15 skarn prospects across two 28 kilometer belts.

According to a July 2023 technical report, a resource estimate outlines a measured and indicated resource of 51.94 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 0.5 percent copper and 0.2 g/t gold for contained metal totaling 569.1 million pounds of copper and 326,800 ounces of gold.

C3 released an exploration update from its Khaleesi copper-gold project area in Jasperoide on February 19, reporting that a soil sampling campaign defined a copper-molybdenum anomaly extending 1,900 meters by up 650 meters. Two zones contain average concentrations of 950 parts per million copper and 650 ppm of copper.

The company said it is working to complete geophysical surveys by the end of March and will use the data to implement a maiden diamond drill program at the target. It closed a US$11.5 million bought-deal private placement on March 19 that will be used in part for exploration and development at the Khaleesi target.

The company has not provided further updates on the project.

Shares of C3 reached a year-to-date high of C$0.80 on July 17.